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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd