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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still